https://gtm.steamproxy.vip/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2864417336

I've read the supply system manual, but I still can't figure out why when I have supply available, am adjacent to one of my provinces, and have a baggage train, I'm still suffering attrition. According to the tooltip for the raiding I haven't even completely exhausted this region of foraging supplies yet, but still some how even the enemy is now experiencing supply attrition. What am I missing? Is it because it's summer? I've experience the same sort of problem though in the Garama region when it was winter though so I don't know... Was that one because it doesn't have a direct road into the province? (the enemy still controlled the minor settlement). The supply system doesn't mention anything about actually needing a road connection, just that the region needs to be adjacent to a friendly region for land supply.