RimWorld

RimWorld

Vanilla Trading Expanded
McBlanc 12 Aug @ 10:20pm
The market is always heading downward
As I am a professional investor I noticed a logical error. If you have $100 and lose 20% then you have $80. And if you then make 20% of that you don't have $100 again but $96. So news cannot be balanced in such a way that once you add 5% and then subtract 5% and there is consolidation. The growth must always be slightly higher than the declines on a percentage basis. If not - the market is always in a downtrend, so any attempt to make money this way in the long term will result in a loss, as we can only buy. In my simulation, the average value of shares over the year fell to 42%, so the problem is serious (I have news set up every 0 days, 60% news impact, so it is accelerated and probably others will see the problem after 3-6 years).

If this was a deliberate action, so that we could not earn too much too fast - I could understand. But I suspect that this is simply a logical error and the values should be corrected.

You can easily improve this by increasing the frequency of positive events, it's a quick fix. I suspect that 15%-25% more often should be enough.

The worst case is a bankruptcy event. The price can fall by 90% or rise by 90%. 2 such events in a row where it fell once and rose once? Out of $100 it comes out 10 and then 19. So if the price falls by 90% it would then have to grow by as much as 1000% to come out at 0. For smaller percentages this logical error is not so noticeable, but probably the problem is caused mainly by the event and the price should fall by a maximum of 50% and grow by 100%. 100 -> 50 -> 100.

Actually i just checked every single event in excel and this is not even close, after all events sum stocks in average is down like -30%. So that's why i was almost always at huge minus every single run. For now it's always a downtrade, people don't see this because they usually has like 5-10 days events. I was curious what is going on when my stock dropped from 200 to 2.5 in 4 years without pullback. This is why. I buffed my version so after all events stocks in average are at 100,2% so now everything is fine and now it's great. If you want this excel for calculations - you can PM me. I only hope that "commonality" is just a % chance to happen after some time, not some complicated formulas.

A great mod anyway. Doesn't reflect in any way how the market actually works, but adds an extra aspect of risk to the gameplay and randomness. Everything could be expanded more, currently it is very shallow, but I understand that time or desire does not allow it.
Last edited by McBlanc; 13 Aug @ 3:46am
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Boss 25 Aug @ 11:41am 
Well thought out. Unfortunate sounding as well.
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