The events that actually kick off the Lunar Empire version of the civil war (e.g. Luna becomes Nightmare Moon) each have a 14 day timeout, and I was letting each max out that 14 days (my forces weren't Quite in place yet) and then with 1 day left on the "The New Moon Rises" event timer, an unrelated event (where Luna isn't turning into Nightmare Moon) fired off, "Winter Moon Celebration"