This mod is going to take some time to get the balance right on. Please post your thoughts and experiences here, particularly how many breakthroughs have youve seen, and by what year. Ill take all this into account as I shift things around moving forward.

Below are some of the behind the scenes things that govern how breakthroughs appear, if you are like me and enjoy staring at numbers, keep reading its your lucky day. That said, the mod is probably more fun without minmaxing your chances too much.

First off, the base chance of a tech appearing comes from 3 main sources, Your empires ethics, traditions and perks. This is the settings file (subject to change):

#Base Factors
@research_philosophy = 2
@research_philosophy_max = 4
@philosophy_penalty = 1 #Research Philosophy decreases chances for breakthroughs in opposing fields
@ethic_boost = 4
@fanatic_ethic_boost = 10
@gestalt_boost = 2 #Universal boost since they have no specific ethics boosts
@tradition_boost = 6 #Applied once for Starting, and again for Finishing a tradition
@perk_boost = 10


#Multipliers
@scientist_genius = 1
@scientist_maniacal = 1
@scientist_inquisitive = 1
@scientist_specialist = 4 #increases 2 per additional level
@scientist_focus = 2 #increases 1 per additional level
@spynetwork_boost = 3 #spynetwork with any science asset in country with breakthrough
@research_agreement_boost = 2
@techAscendant_perk = 1

#Additive boosts (applied after multipliers)
@similar_boost = 5 #other breakthroughs in same category
@neighbor_boost = 10

@base_difficulty = 6000 #Chance of no breakthrough
@cumulative_penalty = 1.5 #multiplies base difficulty for each breakthrough known

#Breakthrough Chance is half the head researcher level + Base Factors, Multiplied by the sum of all Multipliers (minimum 1), Plus Additive Boosts

Research philosophy is the policy (so if you have one that gives +2 engineering and -1 soc/physics you will have a higher chance of engineering breakthroughs). Matching ascension perks or a fanatic ethic are the single biggest boosts (a tradition is also pretty big since you get it twice). All of the matching ethics/traditions/perks are listed in the situation log (once someone has the breakthrough). You can also reveal all the numerical chances in the situation log by putting "event TechAscendant.3" in the console

Those base factors get multiplied by by stats from the council and other empires. Each level of genius/maniacal/inquisitive increases the multiplier by 1. Levels of a matching specialization increases the multiplier by 4, and 2 for each additional level. A research agreement adds 2, and a spynetwork adds 3.

That total is divided by the difficulty (6000x1.5 per other breakthrough, + the total chance for every other breakthrough) It usually ends up a number between 0.2% and 4% if you have a lot of matching factors. You roll that everytime you increase in tech.

Example, lets say you are going for Grand Strategy Simulations. You are a Fanatic Militarist, have completed supremacy traditions, and have a level 6 head researcher with two levels of the military theory specialization, and another councilor has spark of genius. You enable a +2 society research policy to really boost your chances. You should get:

3 (half research level) +4 (philosophy) +10 (fanatic ethic) + 12 (start and finisher of tradition) = 29

Multiply that by 6 (Two levels of Specialization) + 1 (genius) = 7

29x7 = 203. Your divide that by the difficulty. If this is your first breakthrough, 6000. The chances of other breakthroughs will be added here too, which should be lower since they wont have as many matching factors, lets say the total chance of all other breakthroughs is 97 to make a round number

Final chance: 203/6300 = 3.3% chance per tech researched. That is high, you should get that reasonably quickly. Then of course future breakthroughs will will 1.5x more difficult, and you will need different perks/specializations/traditions to maximize your chances for those. Each vanilla ascension perk boosts exactly 1 breakthrough, and each breakthrough is boosted by 2 traditions and 1 ethic.