Patch Revision notes:

• v1.0 - created/published

This guide is going to just cover the mathematical odds. It is not meant to give situational advice, nor is it meant to be a foolproof strategy guide. See what it says and use your own discretion.

Be warned that this guide focuses more on the actual dice rolls than the final roll with modifiers, additive or subtractive. When I say someone rolls a 4, it means that the dice rolled shows a 4, not that they rolled a 2+2 or a 5-1.

Because rolls in combat are always effective when they're higher, you only need to be concerned with the odds of rolling a certain number or higher. For reference, if you want to roll a...

• 6 or higher... you have a 1/6 chance. Pray to the dice gods.
  
• 5 or higher... you have a 1/3 chance. Not likely, but still respectable odds.
  
• 4 or higher... you have a 1/2 chance. Coin toss odds.
  
• 3 or higher... you have a 2/3 chance. The odds are in your favor by a bit.
  
• 2 or higher... you have a 5/6 chance. You're not likely to fail.
  
• 1 or higher... you have a 100% chance. You're guaranteed it.

Defending allows you to reduce the opponent's attack roll by however much you roll. The damage can be lowered to a minimum of 1 damage, so the basic maximum effectiveness (the lowest you can get away with) is 1 below the attacking roll. Any higher roll will not reduce any more damage. Defending against an attacking roll of 5, for example, can be done by a roll of 4 or anything higher, resulting in only 1 damage taken. A roll of 3 would mean you take 5 - 3 = 2 damage, a roll of 2 means you take 3 damage, and so forth.

A defense roll is more viable the higher the attacking roll is. An attack roll of 2 can be reduced to 1 damage from any defending roll at all, but for higher rolls, you may want to defend unless you are saddled with a severe defensive penalty and at low health.

Defending is a safer and more forgiving method for survival. If you don't reduce the damage to 1, you may still survive with only taking 2 or 3 damage even if you don't quite reach the threshold.

At the very worst case scenario, you can reduce the attacker's roll by at least 1 no matter what your roll and modifier are. This means you can survive any roll that matches your current HP.

What really matters is the difference between the two modifiers. If you are going up against an attacker with +1 attack and you have +1 defense, the damage range is the same as if neither of you had any modifier at all.

With no difference in modifiers, to reduce the damage to 1 your dice roll must match at least 1 below the attacker's dice roll.

Yuki rolls a 4 for attacking Fernet. Since the +2 modifiers essentially cancel out, Fernet just has to roll a 3 or higher to take only 1 damage, a 2/3 chance.

When you've got a higher defensive bonus than they do an attacking bonus, the threshold lowers one for every point advantage you have on their modifier.

Marc rolls a 4 against QP, who uses Usabit. QP has a +1 advantage defending against Marc's attack roll (+2 compared to +1). QP has a near guaranteed chance to reduce Marc's attack to 1 damage because the requirement of rolling a 3 or higher is reduced by 1 to rolling a 2 or higher.

When you've got a lower defensive bonus than they do an attacking bonus, the threshold rises one for every point advantage they have over your modifier.

Hime rolls a 6 against Poppo. Poppo must roll 1 higher than Hime's roll because of the +2 advantage Hime has. That's impossible. Poppo is doomed to take at least 2 damage from Hime.

Evading allows you to nullify all damage if you roll higher (with modifiers) than the attacker's roll (with modifiers). It doesn't matter how much higher. a 4 evades a roll of 3 just as well as a 5 or 6. However, if you do not roll higher than the attacking roll, you take its full damage.

You may want to evade low rolls because they are relatively easy to roll higher than and less punishing if you fail to evade. However, depending on your evasion modifier, you can evade higher rolls more easily as well.

Arguably, evading is more sustainable, but riskier than defending. While defending guarantees at least 1 damage per attack, evading can nullify any number of attacks if you succeed. Of course, if you fail, you take much more damage than if you had defended.

Evading is an all or nothing gamble most of the time. You either escape completely unscathed or take heavy damage. There are two cases when you should always evade, no matter how low the chances of success are:

• When the attacker rolls a 1 with modifiers - This means that by defending, you're guaranteed to take 1 damage, while by evading you might take 1 damage or you might not take damage at all.
  
• When you're at 1 HP - Defending always makes you take at least 1 damage. If you defend at 1 HP, you're guaranteed to die. Evading may let you escape from the jaws of death.

The difference between the attacker's modifier and your evasion modifier determines your threshold for success. if you have -1 evade but the attacker has -1 attack, then the chance to evade their attack is just as much as it would be if both of you had no modifiers.

When there is no difference between modifiers, you must roll higher than the attacker does to successfully evade.

Sora attacks Hime with a roll of 3. Hime must roll a 4 or higher to evade the attack.

When you have a higher evasion modifier than the attacker's attack modifier, the evasion threshold goes down for every point advantage.

Aru attacks Fernet with a 3 after playing Reverse Attribute Field. Fernet has a +1 advantage to Aru's attack roll, so she only has to match Aru's roll of 3 or higher to evade the attack.

If you have a lower evasion modifier than the attacker's attack modifier, the threshold rises for every point advantage.

Hime plays Big Magnum against Kai and rolls a 3, plus her +3 attack advantage. Kai must roll an unmodified 7 or higher to evade the roll. Kai cannot roll a 7. He is toast. Dead toast.

You do get to see your attacker's roll before you choose to evade or to defend. This means you can assess your chances of survival for each option.

Positive defense modifiers are more effective than positive evasion modifiers of equal size, because of defending's already low threshold for maximum success. If your defense modifier is equal to your evasion modifier, you'd have to roll 2 higher to successfully evade than to reduce the damage to 1. Similarly, negative defense modifiers hurt your chances less than negative evasion modifiers.

Of course, most characters are either oriented towards defending or evading. Judge your odds at each and act accordingly.

Surviving might not be the best option, however. Maybe there is a rabid Tomomo right behind you, and you'd rather die to the attacking Fernet or survive unscathed to be able to defend better from the oncoming Tomomo attacks. Ultimately, I can't guarantee one option over the other. It's all situational, so take the risks at your own discretion.

Remember, have fun and don't die unless it's tactically advantageous.

I don't know how much this guide helps, but hey I cranked version 1 out in the span of an evening. Don't judge. Actually judging is fine. Do whatever you want. I'm just the author of this mess.