Running the numbers on the COP skins yields a 1% drop rate for legendaries. Which seems way off mark for me.

We know of only 8ish COP legends. If we consider half of the safes were opened that would be 250 legendaries. Yet only 4 ever hit the market.

I believe that rate to be closer to 0.1% than 1%.

Even worse, during the free cop safe drop two weeks ago, I estimated 8-10k players were online at the time (from Steam spy concurrent users). Even if only a portion of those opened their safes, and we consider a 1% rate, we would have seen legendaries hitting the market. But it has not happened.

I can understand people holding on to rare skins but I doubt 250+ people held on to their COP legendaries. Therefore I think the drop rate is lower than 1%.