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It has to compete for a resource which only comes into existence after someone at some point has paid cash, keys are effectively born of money.
So you have something which basically no real worth, you get it for playing a video game, competing with something linked to money, the results are obvious and logical
Spreadsheet as flawed as it is, is still valid on this one.
The people pointing fingers at spreadsheet sites have failed to answer the most basic question, what is the profit motivation for adjusting the price of keys.
Any "rich" trader only really buys key items, high end stranges and unusuals, which are buds or more, they really rarely need to use refined, so it doesn't matter how many refined a key is, they don't benefit. Buying keys to turn into a pile of depreciating refined for such traders just makes no sense at all.
Idle farmers are another type of "rich", in tf2, their farms grow less effective with each rise in price, so its not them either.
As far as I can tell, only newbies who just buy 2 keys to go premium benefit, they now have 10 ref to fill their previously empty backpack with items...anyone in the lower tier of the economy and has to equip basic items/cosmetics/stranges on their previous stock classes benefits from higher key prices as long as they pay for a key or two. So are these newbies rigging an entire price site for their interest? Are the price sites admins choosing to be charitable to newbies? Doesn't seem likely.
Anyways whenever someone claims manipulation, you first question should be why, to what end.
Conversely when someone tells you that keys are over priced, you have to ask them, if they think that keys are going to collapse, did they convert all their keys and key items to refined? Because if they really do believe keys are going to fall, they have stumbled on a way to double their money. But whenever someone claims to know how to double their money and doesn't do it themselves, you know what that kind of person really is....