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Acw 5 Jul, 2016 @ 12:06am
ESL One Cologne 2016: Day 1
Welcome back to BettorBetters! This is the first post for the Cologne 2016 CSGO major so we hope you will enjoy it. We will be covering all of the matches for free to everyone in the group, the post will also be linked onAcw’s Twitter. There will be a tweet out whenever we update bets or add matches. Thanks for joining us! Time to make this another profitable major for everyone involved!
-Acw

Astralis vs Dignitas Bo1
Our Odds: 70-30
The classic Dane matchup, this time with both squads in a weak state. Dignitas has looked quite off since the switch-a-roo between Kjaerbye and Cajunb, specifically in their mirage play, a map that was extremely strong prior to the change. Astralis doesn’t have their full lineup here, but even while missing Kjaerbye, they should still take the victory here and the upset chance isn’t very likely. This becomes more obvious as you see that in the history of these teams playing each other only one has gone in Dig’s favor (23-1). One reason for this is because both teams share a similar map pool and like I have stated many times before, if the better team shares a map pool with the lesser team than upsets are less likely. Overall, I don’t think this will be Dignitas’ major, and I see them losing convincingly to Astralis.
Popo’s recommendation: ICB Dig.
Acw’s recommendation: Will not bet betting on this match.

CLG vs Gambit Bo1
Our Odds:30-70
Let's be honest, CLG just isn’t the same team without JDM. He was not only their AWPer but also their star player and at many times, their carry. And, from what I can tell, the addition of Spaze only seemed to make Gambit more scarey, especially because Adren has been stepping it up big time recently. This is one of the matches today that I will heavily favor the overdogs, and while I want to believe in CLG, I just don’t see Gambit allowing the only map I think CLG could win on; Cobble.
Popo’s recommendation: Having not seen CLG since Koosta got added its just hard to place them skill wise. I wouldn't risk betting on this game.
Acw’s recommendation: Will be going large on Gambit if they stay at 67%.

Na’vi vs Flipside Bo1
Our Odds:75-25
This domestic match is less interesting than the Danish one because it almost always goes the same way. Na’vi is undoubtedly the best CIS region team and they will likely continue to show it here. Flipside have shown some progress recently but not near enough to get over the massive hump that is Na’vi. Not a great match betting wise but in a b03 I would give Na’vi 85%, but because this is a B01 it is a LOT less safe for big bets. This is also the least likely upset of the day, so, if your skins are sparse, don’t bet.
Popo’s recommendation: Skip
Acw’s recommendation: Only appropriate bet here is an ICB on Flipside, I will be skipping however.


NiP vs Optic Bo1
Our Odds:55-45
First upset match of the day in my mind, and it should be an excellent match to watch. Based on current odds I think it will be a great Optic bet, especially because we will likely see Cache or Train as the map, both great for OG. Another factor that gives OG an even greater chance is NiP’s form early in majors. They nearly always have a VERY slow start, often nearly losing matches that should have ended in stomps. There is a reason OG have gotten so much hype recently, it's finally time to have a competitive NA scene.
Popo’s recommendation: Small to Medium on OG.
Acw’s recommendation: Depending how early matches go, I will go medium on this game as I can almost taste the upset.

Team Liquid vs EnVy Bo1
Our Odds:48-52
The star roster for Liquid finally assembled? This game is very hard to even try to make sense of as we haven’t seen Liquid play with JDM enough yet, but I just have a feeling they are going to smother him like they did Koosta. EnVy slowly coming out of slump (Eleague?) so it is hard to determine very much about this match and I advise you do not bet.
Popo’s recommendation: Personally I think EnVy will be showing up here, mostly Apex. But its sure to be a close match, I just edge EnVy slightly. I'll be going Medium on them.
Acw’s recommendation: Not betting unless odds change drastically, doesn’t look like they will though which is fine as this isn’t an extremely predictable game. I think EnVy will take this match however.

Mouz vs VP Bo1
Our Odds:50-50
With how inconsistent both these teams are this game could easily go either way, and might not even be close. The worst part about games like this is just how random they can be, because you never know if Virtus Plow will show up, or if NiKo will go big and carry mouz to an easy win. In this case for us it comes down to the Golden Rule of VP betting. Never go on them as favorites, Never bet against them as underdogs. With Mouz as an underdog here they are certainly worth at least a small bet. Hopefully we get a map like Cache or Overpass, as these are good maps for both teams. We think going low on Mouz if they stay at 45% would be a good move.
Popo’s recommendation: Medium on Mouz if under 45%, Small if under 50%
Acw’s recommendation: Medium Mouz at / under 45%.

SK vs G2 Bo1
Our Odds:52-48
Lots of hype surrounding G2 recently, and much of it is deserved. Either way, it is very important not to forget about how poor G2 has always been in the groups of majors, people always assume they will come in with their prior form and they always seem to disappoint. Now whether this was Ex6tenZ doing or not, one can not be too sure, the only thing we can be sure about is that this will be a competitive match. The map will likely come down to dust2 or overpass, and depending on which SK and G2 show up, we may have an extremely close match.
Popo’s recommendation: Personally I think this should be a 50-50 game, so Betting small on G2 seems like the right move with them as the underdog.
Acw’s recommendation: I am thinking about a G2 bet at/ under 45%. As I think this should be a much closer match than odds represent.

Fnatic vs FaZe Bo1
Our Odds:65-35
Honestly, Fnatic seems like they are coming back to being the top team in the world. Olof has been playing like a monster since he returned, making up for Flushas slight slump. However, FaZe has always been a team that has enough individual skill and aim to upset Fnatic. Recent form favors Fnatic, but I can definitely see an upset coming up in this match.
Popo’s recommendation: Small on Faze.
Acw’s recommendation: Betting FaZe under 30%.

Disclaimer: Losing bets is bound to happen, but you should avoid it as best you can. You bet at your own risk, neither this group nor the individuals involved with the group are responsible for the loss of your skins. Let’s be real for a moment UFC is where it’s at and you should cash out and bet on those fights. We cannot predict each bet correctly, therefore you should only bet what you are willing to lose.
Last edited by Acw; 5 Jul, 2016 @ 6:34am
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Showing 1-2 of 2 comments
xaufy 5 Jul, 2016 @ 4:44am 
Great Gambit win!~5
Acw 5 Jul, 2016 @ 6:34am 
Originally posted by fauX #NoAim:
Great Gambit win!~5
Thanks :)
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Showing 1-2 of 2 comments
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