I've been doing a bit of research regarding the murder statistics over the last 25 years.

Several analyses show that, on average, states that voted for the Republican presidential nominee in 2020 (“red states”) have higher homicide (murder) and gun-death rates than states that voted for the Democrat (“blue states”). Some key findings:

A report by Third Way found that from 2000-2020, red states had a murder rate ~23% higher than blue states. Then in 2021 and 2022, red states’ murder rate was about 33% higher than blue states.

Third Way

Congress.gov


Example: In 2021 the average red-state murder rate was ~9.0 per 100,000; for blue states ~6.8. In 2022: ~8.5 vs ~6.4.

Third Way

For gun homicides in large cities (population study of 300 largest cities): from 2015-2022, cities in red states averaged ~11.1 gun homicides per 100,000, compared with ~7.23 in blue states — about 53% higher.

Center for American Progress Action

According to Manhattan Institute research: many of the cities with the very highest murder/homicide rates are in red-states, even if the city governments themselves are run by Democrats.

Axios


The long-term trend: violent crime in many states has declined over decades, but the “gap” between red and blue states remains notable. For example, the national violent‐crime rate in 2022 was lower than many previous years.

When large cities are removed from red states (to adjust for “blue city in red state” argument), some analyses find the gap narrows — though in some studies the gap remains. (Third Way found red states still ~20% higher after removing largest cities in 2021, ~16% higher in 2022).