At this point I see it going on long enough for it to escalate into a wider conflict.

Hopefully with folks finally getting sick of Russia's bull-mess and putting Putin back in his place.

I think it will end in the next year, with Russia keeping its current gains (about 20% of the country) but not significantly expanding them.

Both countries are exhausted and likely seeking an exit ramp that would allow them both to declare victory, thus justifying the enormous losses suffered, which are in 100-250k range for both sides.

The future of Ukraine is tied to that of Europe. If they are serious about rearmament, then investing heavily in rebuilding and defending Ukraine makes sense, but it's by no means guaranteed. As for Russia, I think they are screwed for the foreseeable future no matter what. At best, they will be playing second fiddle to China and India for the rest of the century.

Originally posted by Jetstream Seum:

I think it will end in the next year, with Russia keeping its current gains (about 20% of the country) but not significantly expanding them.

Both countries are exhausted and likely seeking an exit ramp that would allow them both to declare victory, thus justifying the enormous losses suffered, which are in 100-250k range for both sides.

The future of Ukraine is tied to that of Europe. If they are serious about rearmament, then investing heavily in rebuilding and defending Ukraine makes sense, but it's by no means guaranteed. As for Russia, I think they are screwed for the foreseeable future no matter what. At best, they will be playing second fiddle to China and India for the rest of the century.

Russia has one major offensive left in it for this War - imho - depending how that goes next year will determine the future of its plans.

Europe needs to get its drone production up.
Nuclear arms ar ethe past, drones are the future - at least within next few years it is after that who knows with way tech is going.

Originally posted by DutyCallsBackNextYear:

Originally posted by Jetstream Seum:

I think it will end in the next year, with Russia keeping its current gains (about 20% of the country) but not significantly expanding them.

Both countries are exhausted and likely seeking an exit ramp that would allow them both to declare victory, thus justifying the enormous losses suffered, which are in 100-250k range for both sides.

The future of Ukraine is tied to that of Europe. If they are serious about rearmament, then investing heavily in rebuilding and defending Ukraine makes sense, but it's by no means guaranteed. As for Russia, I think they are screwed for the foreseeable future no matter what. At best, they will be playing second fiddle to China and India for the rest of the century.

Russia has one major offensive left in it for this War - imho - depending how that goes next year will determine the future of its plans.

Europe needs to get its drone production up.
Nuclear arms ar ethe past, drones are the future - at least within next few years it is after that who knows with way tech is going.

You may be right about Russia still having some offensive potential left, but I think that whatever they'd gain from it at this point would be offset by further losses. It's probably not worth it.

Drones and nuclear weapons couldn't fulfill more different roles, though. There is nothing about drones that make nukes obsolete. Other things might start disappearing or evolving, like attack helicopters, many classes of armored combat vehicles and perhaps even snipers.

Russian economy is in complete shambles. People just panic emptied their bank accounts and drew out trillion rubles from banks.
Targeting Russian oil and gas industry with long range weapons has worked out well for Ukraine.

Originally posted by Rumpelcrutchskin:

Russian economy is in complete shambles. People just panic emptied their bank accounts and drew out trillion rubles from banks.
Targeting Russian oil and gas industry with long range weapons has worked out well for Ukraine.

They should keep going after oil and gas too.

Originally posted by Jetstream Seum:

Originally posted by DutyCallsBackNextYear:

Russia has one major offensive left in it for this War - imho - depending how that goes next year will determine the future of its plans.

Europe needs to get its drone production up.
Nuclear arms ar ethe past, drones are the future - at least within next few years it is after that who knows with way tech is going.

You may be right about Russia still having some offensive potential left, but I think that whatever they'd gain from it at this point would be offset by further losses. It's probably not worth it.

Drones and nuclear weapons couldn't fulfill more different roles, though. There is nothing about drones that make nukes obsolete. Other things might start disappearing or evolving, like attack helicopters, many classes of armored combat vehicles and perhaps even snipers.

They do have different roles but over next few years drones are going to be the defining muscle for flexing borders and policy globally.
It will be considered the 'acceptable' version of the nuke threat.

Drones are going in so many directions and sizes it really will be like the transformer decepticon style espionage and hit with them.
Possibly even rivalling the genius of the stuxnet.

Originally posted by Vox:

Originally posted by Rumpelcrutchskin:

Russian economy is in complete shambles. People just panic emptied their bank accounts and drew out trillion rubles from banks.
Targeting Russian oil and gas industry with long range weapons has worked out well for Ukraine.

They should keep going after oil and gas too.

Putin put all his eggs in one basket and boosted up oil and gas industry at the expense of neglecting all other civilian industries and agriculture. Now this baits him in the ass as Ukraine is systematically and methodically taking out this industry.

Originally posted by Rumpelcrutchskin:

Originally posted by Vox:

They should keep going after oil and gas too.

Putin put all his eggs in one basket and boosted up oil and gas industry at the expense of neglecting all other civilian industries and agriculture. Now this baits him in the ass as Ukraine is systematically and methodically taking out this industry.

Apparently they have a manpower shortage now too. Engineering has suffered heavily in the past few years.

Originally posted by Vox:

Originally posted by Rumpelcrutchskin:

Putin put all his eggs in one basket and boosted up oil and gas industry at the expense of neglecting all other civilian industries and agriculture. Now this baits him in the ass as Ukraine is systematically and methodically taking out this industry.

Apparently they have a manpower shortage now too. Engineering has suffered heavily in the past few years.

Tends to happen when you give huge incentives for qualified labor to move into military industry and neglect all civilian production.
Plus sending huge chunk of potential workforce into pointless meat grinder.

Originally posted by DutyCallsBackNextYear:

Originally posted by Jetstream Seum:

You may be right about Russia still having some offensive potential left, but I think that whatever they'd gain from it at this point would be offset by further losses. It's probably not worth it.

Drones and nuclear weapons couldn't fulfill more different roles, though. There is nothing about drones that make nukes obsolete. Other things might start disappearing or evolving, like attack helicopters, many classes of armored combat vehicles and perhaps even snipers.

They do have different roles but over next few years drones are going to be the defining muscle for flexing borders and policy globally.
It will be considered the 'acceptable' version of the nuke threat.

Drones are going in so many directions and sizes it really will be like the transformer decepticon style espionage and hit with them.
Possibly even rivalling the genius of the stuxnet.

Drone are definitely going to be important in geopolitics, but nukes are not going away, not ever by my assessement. Drones cannot wipe out a city, cut off supply lines with radiation, destroy a reinforced structure (such as a dam or a deep bunker) or, by extension, serve as a defensive deterrent through MAD.

They just play in different leagues. Drones may dominate guerilla and conventional war, but if your enemy has a nuclear arsenal, no amount of drones is going to alter the outcome if things escalate that far. That's why nukes remain relevant.

It will end when Russias pumping stations are getting hit.