In 50 years 7 out of 10 might be chinese

Originally posted by oldirty`:

In 50 years 7 out of 10 might be chinese

50? we're nearly there now.

Originally posted by Paulie:

Originally posted by oldirty`:

In 50 years 7 out of 10 might be chinese

50? we're nearly there now.

Nah, only like 3-4 companies are pushing and they all well under a trillion.
Its also not that valuable as a metric. Nvidia makes less cash or about the same as 200 billion dollar companies.

All these tech companies are dependent on foreign oil & gas and foreign rare earths. The U.S. is 100% import reliant for 11 mineral commodities.

All it takes is one hot war to disrupt trade and bring a lot of these companies to their knees. And then you'll see a resurgence of interest in less fragile sectors like energy, utilities, and consumer staples.

Also no, the USA isn't the most advanced in everything. The entire semiconductor industry is reliant on EUV lithography machines. Nvidia needs them. AMD needs them. Intel needs them.
Who makes EUV lithography machines? ASML (Dutch).
And where do they get their high power lasers for those machines? Trumpf SE + Co. KG (German)
And where do they get the extremely precise optical equipment for those machines? Zeiss (German)

I can easily see a future without Microsoft, Apple, or Alphabet as the top companies.

Alphabet has so many failed abandoned projects. They pretty much have to keep falling back on their bread and butter; google search, gmail, and ads.

Apple has some of the best R&D among tech companies, but they're now facing harsh competition.

Microsoft has pretty much abandoned their old products in favor of becoming a server provider and cloud services company.

Among the top ones today, I'd probably bet on Meta, Amazon, and Broadcom
Amazon deserves their success for years of learning from previous failures.
Meta is incredibly well managed and forward thinking.
Broadcom is useful for a lot of other industries.

Nvidia has no competition in the AI chip manufacturing space. Not yet anyways. We'll see if they can keep their momentum going. Their success is a double edged sword IMO. They might be targeted by anti monopoly regulation. They could also become complacent and stagnate, similar to what happened to Intel and Boeing. Nevermind that they're so rich now that their senior engineers have become millionaires and are retiring early.

Originally posted by oldirty`:

In 50 years 7 out of 10 might be chinese

Here's the problem with Chinese technology, it cannot be trusted, which prevents mass adoption. Could you imagine the "national security" implications if every computer and cell phone was running Chinese made chips? Or if western governments had to rely on Chinese companies for cloud storage or ai compute?

It's just not going to happen. Most of the world is happy to rely on US tech and trust US companies because they trust the democratic process and integrity of the countries checks and balances.

The same cannot be said for China. There is simply no way companies and governments around the world are going to trust the CCP not to anal ♥♥♥♥ them if they say or do anything negative about China.

You do realize that China is the largest trading partner of over 120 countries, right?
Maybe adoption will be limited in the west for geopolitical reasons, but the western world isn't the whole world.

I bet the device you posted that message on has components that were made in China.

Originally posted by パエトーン (Belle):

You do realize that China is the largest trading partner of over 120 countries, right?
Maybe adoption will be limited in the west for geopolitical reasons, but the western world isn't the whole world.

I bet the device you posted that message on has components that were made in China.

Sure but there's a difference between using capacitors, ram chips or other small non crucial components from China. These components don't control the security aspects of the system. And most of the imports from China are low security non tech related stuff like batteries, textiles, materials, components etc. Rather than fully build technology products.

Imagine the UK's NHS system running on Chinese cloud storage.

Chinese government: "If you dare suggest that COVID originated from China, we will disable your cloud solution immediately"

Imagine many of the S&P500 companies running Chinese made chips. The Chinese government could push spyware disguised as updates to those chips.

Even something as simple as an app store, they'll just remove your app from the store if you post images of Xi Jing Ping in a winnie the poo outfit.

Essentially what I'm saying is as long as a country and the companies in that country are one and the same, that country cannot be completely trusted.

Originally posted by Alxndr:

Originally posted by パエトーン (Belle):

You do realize that China is the largest trading partner of over 120 countries, right?
Maybe adoption will be limited in the west for geopolitical reasons, but the western world isn't the whole world.

I bet the device you posted that message on has components that were made in China.

Sure but there's a difference between using capacitors, ram chips or other small non crucial components from China. These components don't control the security aspects of the system.

Imagine the UK's NHS system running on Chinese cloud storage.

Chinese government: "If you dare suggest that COVID originated from China, we will disable your cloud solution immediately"

Imagine many of the S&P500 companies running Chinese made chips. The Chinese government could push spyware disguised as updates to those chips.

Even something as simple as an app store, they'll just remove your app from the store if you post images of Xi Jing Ping in a winnie the poo outfit.

Essentially what I'm saying is as long as a country and the companies in that country are one and the same, that country cannot be completely trusted.

The USA has done all of that. Spying, censorship, denying services, and outright malware. Not just to enemies, but to supposed allies in the EU.

Edward Snowden ran away to Russia because he exposed PRISM, the USA's attempt to spy on people online. The NSA developed EternalBlue. Internet infrastructure companies, online platforms, and cloud services companies pulling the rug from under their customers. You get the idea.

Anyways, China is already in a trade war with the USA for both economic and security reasons. Banning companies like Huawei, BYD, and Xiaomi. Yet in spite of that, the rest of the world still enjoys Chinese products and services.

Originally posted by Alxndr:

Originally posted by oldirty`:

In 50 years 7 out of 10 might be chinese

Here's the problem with Chinese technology, it cannot be trusted, which prevents mass adoption. Could you imagine the "national security" implications if every computer and cell phone was running Chinese made chips? Or if western governments had to rely on Chinese companies for cloud storage or ai compute?

Same problem with the US. Its not like they dont have dozen back doors everywhere and do mass surveilance etc.

The thing is, china has a huge domestic market and a government willing to manipulate said market.
Western car companies are already unable to compete with price and the quality is already about the same.

People still think that companies produce their stuff in china because its cheap, the truth today is that only they have the capability and technology to do so in many areas.

Originally posted by パエトーン (Belle):

All it takes is one hot war to disrupt trade and bring a lot of these companies to their knees. And then you'll see a resurgence of interest in less fragile sectors like energy, utilities, and consumer staples.

The entire global economy and virtually every country in the world is like that. Most countries can't even feed their own people, and yes that includes China.

We live in a very fragile and globalized world. This is part of the reason why the US is attempting to become more self-reliant, or at least reliant within its own hemisphere.

Originally posted by xDDD:

This is part of the reason why the US is attempting to become more self-reliant, or at least reliant within its own hemisphere.

And good on them for realizing that and acting on it. I wish my country was just as proactive.

Originally posted by Alxndr:

I'm quite obsessed with the stock market and the psychology that surrounds it. For the last 15 years or so, technology has absolute dominated the market. Everything from software to data to cloud to ai to hardware etc it's been incredible to see. We've come a hell of a long way from pets.com era haha.

But it wasn't always like this. I found some interesting data from previous times.

In 1985 these were the top 10 companies by market cap.

IBM – ~32.4 billion
Exxon – ~16.7 billion
GE – ~7.5 billion
Philip Morris – ~25 billion
GM – ~20 billion
Coca-Cola – ~4.3 billion
Merck – ~6 billion
AT&T – ~5 billion
Procter & Gamble – ~5 billion
Mobil – ~8 billion

Then in 2005 it was the following.

General Electric – 382.2 billion
ExxonMobil – 380.6 billion
Microsoft – 263.0 billion
Citigroup – 234.4 billion
BP – 221.4 billion
Walmart – 212.2 billion
Royal Dutch Shell – 210.6 billion
Johnson & Johnson – 199.7 billion
Pfizer – 195.9 billion
Bank of America – 178.8 billion

Now in 2025 it looks like this.

NVIDIA – 4.6 trillion
Microsoft – 3.8 trillion
Apple – 3.7 trillion
Alphabet – 2.9 trillion
Amazon – 2.4 trillion
Meta Platforms – 1.85 trillion
Broadcom – 1.65 trillion
Saudi Aramco – 1.6 trillion
TSCM – 1.5 trillion
Tesla – 1.44 trillion

Only 1 company from 2005 is still in the top 10... Microsoft. Which I think is incredible.

So even though history predicts that these companies may not be in the top 10 in 20 years time, I can't help but think they will. I can't really imagine a world where these companies are not in the top 10.

US technology is just so stupidly far ahead of everything else in the world there's no room for anyone else to progress. It's like the US is Usain Bolt while the rest of the world is still at high school level.

Like does anyone seriously see a world were these companies don't basically control the entire worlds digital infrastructure?

China with all their theft will always be second. I don't see them being capable of overtaking the U.S. except removing them from the picture altogether.

Well to begin with, something having high value in financial markets implies absolutely nothing about how technologically advanced it may or may not be. This metric only proves that US-based tech companies are highly valued by market prospectors. And it's a very well-known phenomenon that American companies are almost always overvalued - which is why they bubble so fast and crash so hard - just look at the other historical lists and you'll already see several instances where that happened.

But a company having headquarters somewhere is basically meaningless in today's world. All of these tech companies (and this is by no means limited to US companies) still use Chinese semiconductors, Japanese or Korean capacitors, they use board materials 'reclaimed' in Thai facilities, they're funded by international business consortiums with zero national basis, the factories "employ" grey area immigrants who are effectively slaves, and everybody's tech support is done in India.

There is no longer any such thing as mono-national big business; it is flimsy and inaccurate to categorize any company with any one specific nationality.

Originally posted by OoOoOoooOOoOoorgle:

Well to begin with, something having high value in financial markets implies absolutely nothing about how technologically advanced it may or may not be. This metric only proves that US-based tech companies are highly valued by market prospectors. And it's a very well-known phenomenon that American companies are almost always overvalued - which is why they bubble so fast and crash so hard - just look at the other historical lists and you'll already see several instances where that happened.

But a company having headquarters somewhere is basically meaningless in today's world. All of these tech companies (and this is by no means limited to US companies) still use Chinese semiconductors, Japanese or Korean capacitors, they use board materials 'reclaimed' in Thai facilities, they're funded by international business consortiums with zero national basis, the factories "employ" grey area immigrants who are effectively slaves, and everybody's tech support is done in India.

There is no longer any such thing as mono-national big business; it is flimsy and inaccurate to categorize any company with any one specific nationality.

Good post.

Originally posted by oldirty`:

People still think that companies produce their stuff in china because its cheap, the truth today is that only they have the capability and technology to do so in many areas.

It's a combination of
-High availability of educated/skilled manpower
-Excellent logistics and supply chain
-Economies of scale

Unfortunate that people think China is the goto for industries just because it's "cheaper". The truth is it's just an environment where all the ingredients for good business is concentrated.

"In the US, you could have a meeting of tooling engineers, and I’m not sure we could fill the room." In China, however, "you could fill multiple football fields.... Hence, the vocational expertise in China is very deep”.

-Tim Cook.

Ah this quote reminds me. A lot of american electronics like Apple and Tesla products are made in China. Ironic given OP's position on Chinese products.