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I have nearly 3000 eligible games for booster drops and at level 320+ i used to get around 2-3 booster packs a week.
Now i am lucky if i get a single one in a month.
They definitely changed something behind the scenes about 1-2 years ago.
I suspect they introduced a simple "cooldown", so if you got a booster drop you cant get another for X amount of time.
So its a bit more fairly distributed. Before 90% of all booster drops were split between maybe 5% of the Steam accounts who had a lot of games and a high level.
The higher level will still net you a better probability to get a booster but after the cooldown triggers you have to wait like every other account for another chance.
Thats at least what i suspect. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So the more eligible accounts there are, the smaller the chances.
The more accounts have higher levels, the smaller the chances.
The smaller the amount of people crafting badges for the games you're eligible for, the smaller the chances.
The older the games, the more people have already crafted the badges if they wanted to, so again, the drops become less, so the smaller the chances.
Also without the free trading cards from summer and wintersales, there has been a lot less gems on the market, thus making the prices for sacks of gems higher than they've been for a long time. Less people want to buy those now, because using them to craft boosterpacks has become more expensive, which again means that there are less badges being crafted as a result. So even less chances.
And if anything, most people always wait for summer and wintersales to craft their badges, for these additional carddrops. So if at all, I'd expect to get boosterpacks during these two sales.