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turtle225 15 Mar, 2022 @ 5:10pm
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2H Flail Buffs, Head Hunter, and Brute | Calculations
Introduction
Of Flesh and Faith (oFaF) reworked 2H Flails to deal additional armor ignoring damage on Pound headshots (+10% normal and +10% again after Mastery). Pound also already had +10% armor ignore compared to the Flail info card. After the buffs it's now 60% armor ignore on the head (40% on the body). In addition, the 2H Flail and Berserk Chain got increased damage ranges.

HeadHunter (HH) was also buffed to no longer lose the stack when missing.

Because I'm a nerd, I ran a bunch of tests.

This study aims to answer the following questions:
  • Are 2H Flails good now? TLDR - Yes
  • Is HH good on 2H Flails? TLDR - Yes
  • Is HH better than Executioner? TLDR - Yes on Flails, otherwise its not very clear.
  • Is Brute good? TLDR - It is bad in general, but less bad on 2H Flails

Methodology
  • I will be using three different variants of my calculator located here.[github.com]
  • Scores in the tests will show mean hits or swings (in the case where accuracy is factored) to kill the enemy or enemies. Lower scores are better.
  • The first two studies will assume 100% accuracy. The third and fourth study will take hit chances into account.
  • Our attacker always has weapon mastery and I will point out when other perks are in play. Attacking weapons will use their unique logic (ie Flail logic, Split Man logic, etc.)
  • Defenders will have their defensive perks in play and will be wearing their best armor possible.
  • The way that HH works in the calculator is to carry over the stack to the next enemy if you gain one when the enemy dies. This is consistent with how it works in game.
  • The way Executioner works in the calculator is that it tracks when an enemy becomes injured to turn it online. In other words, the first hit would never have Executioner, as you would expect.
  • When I write 215/150 or similar in the calculations, I'm referring to hat/body armor in that order.

Disclaimers
  • These calculator tests are done in a 1v1 sandbox type of environment. That's not how the game is played, so while we can use these tests to help us understand things, please understand that it is only a simulation.
  • The first two studies assume perfect accuracy, which is not how the game works. Perfect accuracy also penalized the +accuracy type weapons since they don't get to enjoy their accuracy benefit (ie Flails and Greatsword in these tests).
  • The third/fourth study do take into account hit chances, but it is oversimplified in the sense that real game conditions have shifting hit chances due to terrain, morale, surrounding, injuries, etc. I can't simulate such complexities and so the hit chance is just a static number in these tests.
  • Enemies are wearing their best armor sets in these tests but frequently in game this is not the case. The nature of the tests thus disfavors weapons with poorer armor damage.
  • I can't test everything, just because something looks a certain way in these tests doesn't necessarily mean that that will always be the case in every possible scenario.

Study #1 ─ 2Handers and HH vs. 30 enemy test sample
The first test will put various 2Handers against a group of 30 different enemies from the various factions in the game. The idea of this test is to get a general sense of the average damage potential of the weapon in a variety of situations. The score will be the average mean number of hits to defeat an enemy from the test sample, lower scores are better.

Our base case is an attacker with weapon Mastery and no other perks. Defenders will have their relevant perks. 100% hit chance is assumed.

The first column is the average mean hits to kill with no perks (except Mastery). The second column displays average kill time with HH added. The third column shows the % difference in kill times from adding HH. The fourth column displays average kill time with Executioner (Ex) added (no HH). The fifth column shows the % difference in kills times from adding Executioner.

Weapon
Normal
With HH
%Diff HH
With Ex
%Diff Ex
2H Flail - Pound
3.45
3.15
9.5%
3.32
3.9%
Berserk Chain - Pound
3.08
2.83
8.8%
2.96
4.1%
Hvy Rusty Axe - Split Man
2.83
2.77
2.1%
2.71
4.2%
Mansplitter - Split Man
2.42
2.36
2.5%
2.34
3.3%
2H Mace - Cudgel
2.83
2.71
4.4%
2.67
6%
2H Hammer - Smite
2.79
2.69
3.7%
2.67
4.5%
Greatsword - Overhead
3.78
3.67
3%
3.7
2.2%

Observations:
  • We can see at a glance that the Flails are still worse than most of our 2Handers in terms of average kill times. This isn't too surprising as they are a +accuracy type of weapon.
  • HH is noticeably more impactful on the Flails than the other weapons. Though even with HH they are still performing worse generally.
  • HH is outpacing Executioner in these tests on the Flails. Otherwise it's a bit mixed between the other weapons. I can't make any bigger conclusion with just this limited testing.
  • I believe both HH and Executioner suffer in these tests to some degree due to the sandbox nature of the calculator. For example, the extra damage they provide may not be impactful in a 1v1, hence appearing as providing a low return in these tests (see Study#2 for 2H mace example of this), but the bonus damage could matter more when combined with teammates using other weapons. Both HH and Executioner also benefit from smart targeting by the player. As in we can make purposeful use of our HH stack against a vulnerable enemy, or intentionally setup Executioner with other bros before our big 2Hander gets his turn.

For Case Studies 2-4, please see the following post. I could not fit everything into just one. Overall conclusions from all studies will be below.

Conclusions
  • 2H Flails have gotten a big boost from these buffs, as we expected.
  • In terms of average damage output, 2H Flails are still generally behind other 2Handers.
  • Against shielded enemies, 2H Flails should be the best option for their bonus accuracy. They also have some one-shot potential against things like Footman and Legions. Frenzy, while not tested, would increase one-shot potential.
  • Against non-shielded enemies where we have no accuracy boost, a different 2Hander should generally outperform the Flail.
  • HH does provide a meaningful boost to 2H Flail builds and should be considered if using one.
  • HH is better than Executioner on 2H Flails but on other weapons it depends. The sandbox nature of the calculator doesn't do the greatest job of assessing either of these perks though.
  • Brute is generally a negative trait, and although less bad on Flail builds, not something you should be going out of your way to fish for.
  • Enemy 2H Flail users like Berserkers and Fallen Heroes are a lot more threatening now. For example, a Chain Berserker can potentially one-shot a 300/300 Forge AFP bro up until he has 104 hp. Things like Brow or Nine Lives can mitigate this, but Chain Zerkers should have higher priority to kill or control than in the past.

Thank you for reading.

What are your thoughts on 2H Flails after the rework/buffs, and have you been using them?
Last edited by turtle225; 20 Mar @ 10:46am
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Showing 1-15 of 59 comments
turtle225 15 Mar, 2022 @ 5:11pm 
Study #2 ─ Flails and one-shot chances vs. specific enemies
The second test will take a more granular look of the Flails against specific enemies. I've included the 2H Mace as a comparison case.

Targets will be Footman, Legions, and Honor Guards, as they are prime targets for Flail bros to ignore their shield bonuses. I've also included Chosen as a more generic test. 100% hit chance is assumed. Our attacker has weapon mastery. Defenders have their perks.

We are measuring mean hits to kill with and without HH (lower score better), and also the % chance of a 1-shot kill (or 2-shot where a 1-shot is not possible).

2H Flail w/ Mastery - Pound
Enemy
Normal
%1hit kill
With HH
%1hit kill w/ HH
215/150 Footman
2.24
9.3%
2.07
14.5%
130/135 Legion
1.93
10.2%
1.87
15.2%
180/210 HG
2.59
41.5%(2-shot)
2.41
58.7%(2-shot)
190/230 Chosen
3.58
10.2%(2-shot)
3.13
25.7%(2-shot)

Berserk Chain w/ Mastery - Pound
Enemy
Normal
%1hit kill
With HH
%1hit kill w/ HH
215/150 Footman
1.94
18.2%
1.8
28.3%
130/135 Legion
1.81
19%
1.71
29.1%
180/210 HG
2.31
68.3%(2-shot)
2.21
78%(2-shot)
190/230 Chosen
3.22
14.4%(2-shot)
2.85
35.7%(2-shot)

2H Mace - Cudgel
Enemy
Normal
%1hit kill
With HH
%1hit kill w/ HH
215/150 Footman
1.99
1%
1.98
1.7%
130/135 Legion
1.92
7.5%
1.92
8.1%
180/210 HG
2
100%(2-shot)
2
100%(2-shot)
190/230 Chosen
2.94
6.1%(2-shot)
2.75
25%(2-shot)

Observations:
  • In the case of 100% accuracy, the 2H mace is only losing to the Berserk Chain against Footman and Legions. Otherwise it is still better than the Flails in these tests. In reality, the Flails will have bonus hit chance that will make them better than the Mace here (see Study #3).
  • The Flails have higher one-shot kill chances than the Mace in these tests, but the higher damage variance they have also puts them at risk of 3-hit kills, whereas the Mace kills these enemies (except Chosen) by the second hit guaranteed.
  • HH increases our mean kill rates and our chances of one-shot kills by a decent amount on the Flails.
  • HH looks bad on the 2H Mace in these cases because it is not helping it one-shot any easier and it was already two-hit killing without HH. This is an example where HH might be bad. Teammates may appreciate the extra damage on a headshot to a Footman, but Ancient Dead have Brow so hitting their head isn't any helpful here (likely even worse for setting up for teammates going for the follow-up kill). It does help the 2H Mace against Chosen though, and likely against other enemies not tested.

Study #3 ─ Adding hit chance to the equation against Footman
The third test will take a closer look at the Footman example, but this time with hit chances factored in to try and get a sense of how valuable the +25 hit chance (Shield Spec Heater) Pound will get compared to the 2H Mace having no bonus accuracy in this example. Hit chances will be factored into this test displayed in () next to the mean swings to kill.

HH and weapon mastery is assumed in these tests.

Note that hit chance tests are a bit dubious (see Disclaimers). When I say 80 skill here assume 80 effective skill after any modifiers.

Scores in these tests will show mean swings to kill instead of hits to kill. A 100% hit chance example is at the bottom for comparison.

Brute is also being tested here. Brute reduces skill by 5 in exchange for +15% damage on headshots. The way this works is the same as the 1H Axe skill. This only applies to the headshot modifier which occurs last in the damage formula. It is therefore weaker than you might expect (say compared to Huge/Drunk which is just a global damage buff).

Vs. 215/150 Footman with 35 Defense (25 from Heater Shield). Forge.
Weapon
2H Flail - Pound
Berserk Chain - Pound
2H Mace - Cudgel
80 Skill
2.96 (70%)
2.56 (70%)
4.43 (45%)
75 Skill (Brute)
3 (65%)
2.62 (65%)
4.52 (40%)
100 Skill
2.29 (90%)
2 (90%)
3.05 (65%)
95 Skill (Brute)
2.28 (85%)
2.01 (85%)
3.02 (60%)
100% Hit
2.07
1.8
1.98

Observations:
  • With hit chances factored in, we see the Flails doing much better than the 2H Mace now, as they are getting a big boost by their +25% hit chance.
  • With this, I would say that 2H Flails should be the "best" general weapons against +25def shielded enemies like Heater Footman and Tower Shield Ancient Dead. They will also get a nice boost against other shielded enemies.
  • Losing 5 skill for Brute in this scenario was usually detrimental and only barely helpful in the case of the high skilled bro using the Mace. The extra damage afforded on a Brute hit may help teammates get a finishing blow easier, for what that is worth, but the lowered accuracy overall is not ideal.

Study #4 ─ Brute with various weapons vs. heavy Chosen
This fourth test is focused around Brute specifically. Our target enemy will be the heaviest Chosen variant. We've added an Orc Axe Duelist and a Flail Duelist only hitting the head (between Lash and HH).

HH and weapon mastery is assumed.

Score is the mean swings to kill the chosen. Lower is better.

Vs. 190/230 Chosen with 15 Defense. Forge/Resilient/Underdog.
Weapon
2H Flail
Berserk Chain
2H Mace
Duelist Head Splitter
Duelist Flail - Lash
80 Skill
4.82
4.36
4.24
6.52
7.7
75 Skill (Brute)
4.99
4.64
4.58
6.85
7.88
100 Skill
3.69
3.35
3.24
4.98
5.89
95 Skill (Brute)
3.74
3.47
3.43
5.15
5.92
100% Hit
3.13
2.85
2.75
4.24
5.01

Observations:
  • Even when using HH and weapons that lean toward headshot oriented builds, losing 5 skill for the Brute effect is actively harming us in every example test against the heavy Chosen, even on bros with high skill.
  • I can confidently say that Brute is generally speaking a negative trait, and not something you should go out of your way to find. Be mindful as well that Brow enemies completely ignore Brute's effect, so in those cases you would have -5 skill for nothing.
  • The Flails are not as negatively impacted by Brute as the other weapons tested, meaning that if you do find a decent Brute you may be inclined to give him a Flail.
  • These tests are not comprehensive. For example, against Orcs where you may be able to have 95% hit chance even with Brute, there would be no downside. Against enemies with little or no headgear (that don't have Brow), Brute may be less bad.

Conclusions
See OP for Conclusions. Thank you for reading.
#1
Gilius Thunderhead 15 Mar, 2022 @ 5:43pm 
Originally posted by turtle225:
I'm a nerd

This is the clearest conclusion of all! (thanks turtle)
#2
Cat® 15 Mar, 2022 @ 6:08pm 
Your mathematical breakdowns are always appreciated.

What I am reading from this is that, firstly, damn flail u carryin a permit 4 dat booty??, and secondly that two-handed flails seem to have some excellent utility for dealing with heavily armoured units but not with a great deal of reliability. But running a headhunter to capitalise on lucky headshots seems legit to my sleep deprived eyes. A 2h flail user and a crossbow unit working in tandem (or being the same person for that matter) might find some excellent value against chunky enemies.

But as a strategy it seems to me that it will all be concluded as "jank" if my jargon comes across. It's a janky way to get a higher value out of a unit\loadout that otherwise wouldn't have much. Though that's not to ignore some serious kill potential if the stars align; in the end all it takes is one lucky headshot to get the ball rolling. I can see a brother with 2h flail, HH and Frenzy just starting to clobber their way through even medium enemies, like a greatsword would with light ones. Fatigue permitting, and with a little help from the rest of the gang to set up the dominoes.

All said and done however I think the HH change is more interesting for crossbows, and the flail buff more scary in terms of orcs than utility for brothers. Though there's an idea rattling around in my head of a unit having a one-handed flail as a backup weapon and then using it opportunistically against vulnerable enemies. Though I don't have much of an idea what good it'd do. Writing this I am wondering if this isn't the wrong way around; that you engage with flail and then once your quarry is dead; pull a crossbow or throwing weapon and nail someone else through the head, 2 tiles away. The pocket-crossbow is always a fun, if not necessarily good, solution to fleeing enemies.
Last edited by Cat®; 15 Mar, 2022 @ 6:09pm
#3
Gilius Thunderhead 15 Mar, 2022 @ 6:37pm 
Do you think HH would be useful for an axe duellist (+50% on head hit)?
#4
turtle225 15 Mar, 2022 @ 6:50pm 
Originally posted by Gilius Thunderhead:
Do you think HH would be useful for an axe duellist (+50% on head hit)?

Generally yes, if you have room for it.

That said, I've done some light testing and found that Fighting Axe with HH is still generally worse than Winged Mace with HH, despite the Fighting Axe benefiting more from the perk.

Good on Head Splitters though, or if you have something famed.

Originally posted by Cat®:
A 2h flail user and a crossbow unit working in tandem (or being the same person for that matter) might find some excellent value against chunky enemies.

This sounds like fun. Definitely gonna give this a go at some point. I've run Xbow+2H Mace guys before.
#5
Briendly 15 Mar, 2022 @ 7:49pm 
...and Famed versions are now amplifying the use of these massive weapons. I think the adjusted parameters are balancing out the Flail usage. I've been using a famed 90 dmg 2H flail with an extra 11%AP and it's one shoting a lot more than I expected it to. After I added the mastery, it really started to surprise me. I'd imagine brute would only increase those findings, just as your data above proves.

I don't think very many of us want to field a full 12 man Rusty Axe crew to min/max the game to it's core...so now at least Flails can balance things out a little and create a more fun experience within the game mechanics.

Great data btw.
#6
mergele 15 Mar, 2022 @ 8:21pm 
It's been a while since I messed with HH, so my assumptions may be incorrect, if so please correct me, but:
1: HH buff triggers on the guaranteed headshot from 1-H flails
2: HH buffs stays when switching weapons.
I am thinking about a bro using the 1-handed flail with it's guaranteed headshot on the first turn, then the next swap over to 2-handed hammer and deliver a massive blow to the head.
But I'm not sure if that is enough to be worthwhile, especially since after the initial contact you'd not get much out of the flail anymore unless you switch back-and-forth.
#7
turtle225 15 Mar, 2022 @ 8:26pm 
Originally posted by Briendly:
...and Famed versions are now amplifying the use of these massive weapons. I think the adjusted parameters are balancing out the Flail usage. I've been using a famed 90 dmg 2H flail with an extra 11%AP and it's one shoting a lot more than I expected it to. After I added the mastery, it really started to surprise me. I'd imagine brute would only increase those findings, just as your data above proves.

I haven't found a famed Flail yet since the buffs, but now its gonna be something exciting to find and build around rather than in the past where you would find famed Flails and they would still be worse than regular versions of other 2Handers.

Originally posted by mergele:
It's been a while since I messed with HH, so my assumptions may be incorrect, if so please correct me, but:
1: HH buff triggers on the guaranteed headshot from 1-H flails
2: HH buffs stays when switching weapons.
I am thinking about a bro using the 1-handed flail with it's guaranteed headshot on the first turn, then the next swap over to 2-handed hammer and deliver a massive blow to the head.
But I'm not sure if that is enough to be worthwhile, especially since after the initial contact you'd not get much out of the flail anymore unless you switch back-and-forth.

You are correct on both accounts, though trying to use a hammer for the follow up would be a bit clunky on AP.

Easier swaps would be 1H Axe, Billhook with Mastery, or 2H Cleaver to try and capitalize on the primed stack.
#8
Hykal 15 Mar, 2022 @ 8:27pm 
Fantastic breakdown as always, turtle. It only took 50 years, but flails are actually competitive!
#9
mergele 15 Mar, 2022 @ 8:37pm 
Originally posted by turtle225:
You are correct on both accounts, though trying to use a hammer for the follow up would be a bit clunky on AP.

Easier swaps would be 1H Axe, Billhook with Mastery, or 2H Cleaver to try and capitalize on the primed stack.
Thanks. the idea was you have the 2-tile move + attack for more flexibility and then the hammer for maximum one-turn (or 2 turn?) kill potential next turn. How to make that useful after that is an issue I am still pondering.
Last edited by mergele; 15 Mar, 2022 @ 8:38pm
#10
suejak 15 Mar, 2022 @ 9:19pm 
Great post as always!
#11
UnluckyNoob 15 Mar, 2022 @ 11:14pm 
Originally posted by turtle225:
What are your thoughts on 2H Flails after the rework/buffs, and have you been using them?
As any other trash tier weapon/perk buff 2H flails change only benefit enemies. As you shown above 2H flails are only good vs shields and especially good when attack is low and defence is high. Also with 2H flail buffs champions will oneshot BF bros more reliably than ever. All these 1-shots and 2-shots are disgusting and turns game into casino.

On the other hand 2H flails are still useless for a player. At first you do not care much about occasional oneshots. At second shielded enemies are not very dangerous and usually there is no point in killing them. Just surround them and slaughter their backline first. At third swordlance(AoE attack) is still better weapon vs shields because of several reasons:
  • More total damage
  • Higher attack because backline doesn't care about defence
  • Huge and mushrooms have no downsides
  • Famed swordlances(warscythes really) are easy to find unlike famed 2H flails.
#12
Abel 16 Mar, 2022 @ 2:01am 
Thanks for these detailed calculations, turtle!

UN, you make good points but OHK have always been a parameter of the game. I can think of a number of weapons that can outright kill a bro, even more so if they're named! But there are multiple ways to deal with that risk and I'm surprised to hear you complain about it.

Let's not forget that Pound offers a 30% chance to stun. It's not amazing, but it's not nothing either. A chance to completely disable a foe for a turn is quite powerful. Obviously, some enemies are immune but it's still nice to know it can happen!
That's why 2H-Flails can't reasonably be buffed to the level of Greataxes and the like. Although, we could argue that 100% Daze is better than sometimes Stun.
#13
Cat® 16 Mar, 2022 @ 2:44am 
Originally posted by UnluckyNoob:
Originally posted by turtle225:
What are your thoughts on 2H Flails after the rework/buffs, and have you been using them?
As any other trash tier weapon/perk buff 2H flails change only benefit enemies. As you shown above 2H flails are only good vs shields and especially good when attack is low and defence is high. Also with 2H flail buffs champions will oneshot BF bros more reliably than ever. All these 1-shots and 2-shots are disgusting and turns game into casino.

On the other hand 2H flails are still useless for a player. At first you do not care much about occasional oneshots. At second shielded enemies are not very dangerous and usually there is no point in killing them. Just surround them and slaughter their backline first. At third swordlance(AoE attack) is still better weapon vs shields because of several reasons:
  • More total damage
  • Higher attack because backline doesn't care about defence
  • Huge and mushrooms have no downsides
  • Famed swordlances(warscythes really) are easy to find unlike famed 2H flails.

In regards to 'casino' I think that's a bit overstated. How many enemies use two-handed flails? All I can think of is Orc Berserkers and Hedge Knights. Sure, going up against them is scarier now than it was, but they were already scary up close to begin with. I think, overall, the biggest impact is seen in berserkers and beyond that this just makes it so if you do end up with a flail in your hands you'll benefit more from it than you otherwise would.

I do agree, though, that flails are still on the weaker side of the spectrum. High utility early-game, limited utility after, and in endless campaigns they don't really stay on top.

Adding at the end here that there are raiders with two-handed flails, but they're not very common so there's considerable risk management potential there.
#14
Heron 16 Mar, 2022 @ 3:25am 
I've taken an 85ish matk bro with a 2h flail and HH into Monolith and found him immensely useful there. Monolith has tons of shielded enemies. He was useful in other late game encounters too, especially Seas of Tents.
Last edited by Heron; 16 Mar, 2022 @ 3:29am
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Date Posted: 15 Mar, 2022 @ 5:10pm
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