Play a few careers with Super Creek, and you will stop being afraid of the relatively low failure rate.
You can train her for almost a year with a constant 5% chance of failure and it will never happen.

I often take risks even at 10-12% if it's worth it, and it works very often.
And I've also risked 40% or so, and it works sometimes. So 40% is not 100%, either.
If you rarely take risks, then your brain simply perceives each failure more acutely, and you feel like it's too often just because it happened, and it's unpleasant.

But if ♥♥♥♥ happens - ♥♥♥♥ happens. And it doesn't even necessarily depend on the fact that you failed a training session a couple of times. Sometimes your uma gets a bad status right a couple of days before the summer for no reason, and you can't cure it in the hospital in 3 days, and during this time you have a series of events with a decline in mood - and this is something you can't even prevent by deciding whether to risk or not.

you're just unlucky

welcome to XCom baby

I was lucky enough to don't fail two decisive 20% trainings near the end, but I don't think that you should ever try 40%...

How much times did you test and how often did it succeed? If your answer is "it feels like it", then better lets pretend you didn't open this thread to show everyone your lack of understanding when it comes to probability.

Originally posted by Maya-Neko:

How much times did you test and how often did it succeed? If your answer is "it feels like it", then better lets pretend you didn't open this thread to show everyone your lack of understanding when it comes to probability.

I wouldn't open a thread like this if most of my 25% attempts wouldn't result in failure. These kinds of mechanics often have hidden real %. I.e. Darkest Dungeon actually cheats in favor of the player admitedly. Same goes for battletech. Some games for a reason or another often lie on purpose.

The question is, how many times did you succeed with 15% before you finally realized a single failure? You probably forgot and got comfortable. 15% is 15%. Just like me failing a 3% followed by an 8%.

Try playing competitive Pokémon and use 70 Accuracy moves.

That'll clear up your misconception that 30% is a "low failure rate" real fast.

OP must be never played Pokémon and X-com

Originally posted by Rodrigo:

I wouldn't open a thread like this if most of my 25% attempts wouldn't result in failure. These kinds of mechanics often have hidden real %. I.e. Darkest Dungeon actually cheats in favor of the player admitedly. Same goes for battletech. Some games for a reason or another often lie on purpose.

Well, you're the type of player that makes devs lie about these chances in the first place.

The human brain is very good in exaggerating anything that was bad. When someone says, that 15 % "feels" more like 30 %, then chances are extremely high, that it's actually just 15 % and the player who complains about it simply doesn't understand the fallacy the brain creates out of it. This is a defense mechanism of the brain, because it wants to stop you from doing these 15 % rolls over and over again (and somehow you don't even try to learn from it, so the brain will further exaggerate it over time)

That's why devs usually "cheat" a littlebit by giving the player an advantage by turning the 15 % more into a 10 %, so that the player thinks it actually being a 15-20 % chance. The other way around however doesn't really happen, given that players would find it within a day or two (and mind, that this game is 4 years old)

So yeah, if you want to make a point, don't even try to argue with a feeling or anecdotes, but rather show actual numbers. Do like 200 trainings at 15 % and see, how close of far away it actually is from 15 %

Don't let your energy fall below 50%. It's better to rest than to waste a day failing, waste a day at the infirmary to cure the condition, and then be forced to rest anyway.

Unlike Super Robot Wars, the chances are as stated. I played the DMM version quite a lot and failed once at 2%, but like Killial said earlier it's worse when the random events cause bad conditions and/or lower your mood. You can always manage your energy levels with int training and sleeping, but suddenly getting Night Owl or Migraine is impossible to prevent.
Once I got 4 mood decrease events in a row (and like over 10 during that career) and back on the DMM version, I had a 0% success rate for Anshinzawa events (each choice has a different success rate, but regardless of that I never got a Perfect Puncture).

Daily post of people not understanding odds and random chance.

Originally posted by 7Oky0Ricano6:

OP must be never played Pokémon and X-com

Or Fire Emblem

Yep rates are fake

Last night, played El Condor. Lost one training session early on to a 5%. Then later, failed a 3% and if I remember correctly, it was a friendship too but uh, I may be misremembering.
So, I'm never playing this game ever again.