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TL;DR: She killed him in a fit of rage. He's wandering the cabin, his own personal 'limbo' before realizing what his untimely end was.
A lot of stuff seems subject to change, at some point it's easy to think that depending on the things you interact with, you get different cutscenes! Which apparently is not true.
We actually discussed during development whether we should change her facial expression to a smile for the final sequence/end video, but decided it was more effective to keep it the way it was.
But i know it would ruin the story otherwise...
This is something that's bugging me about other theories The general consensus seems to be that she has just recently killed him. Now, there is a bit of misdirection after you find the body, but overall there are many signs which point to it having been months if not YEARS since the death of the body in the armoire. As you examine the lamps you comment multiple times on just how much dust has piled up. And the body is described as being being dry and whithered.The poem on the wall tells the story of Oisin who is spirited away to the land of the fey by a faerie woman Niamh Chinn Óir. He identifies himself with Oisin, who is mortal, and who returns from the faerie realm after three years only to learn it has actually been three hundred years and as his feet touch mortal ground he is suddenly overcome by all those years, withers away, and dies.
All of this evidence is then sharply contrasted by the, rather strong, idea that the conversation of the two figures outside pertains to Serena having comitted the murder herself. They had a "plan" and Serena did something that ruined it.
I would submit, however, that what ruined the plan was not Serena comitting murder, but Serena actually going into the cabin and looking around. The plan was for Serena to come to the cabin and get her ring and leave, and instead she looked around, found the body, and now what? If she reports it this becomes a crime scene, there are papers signed! bulldozers are coming! Whatever project is going on would have to be halted for an investigation and money would be lost.
After he finds the body the protagonist becomes very preoccupied with the potential of comitting suicide. Throughout the story he makes continued references to the fact that he has high blood pressure and is at high risk for a cardiac episode of some form. He even wonders two or three times if he's had a stroke.
My personal theory is that he either killed himself or had a heart attack/stroke. So why is he in the armoire? in his final moments he might have chosen to shut himself in the armoire with the last of her clothes that he still had. Otherwise, Serena and her boyfriend might have found his dead body and shut it up where they couldn't see until they could decide what to do wth the situation.
I like your theory until this part, because then there's an incongruency with the bloodstain on the floor that appears when you find the body.
My theory is that she killed him long time ago after finding a lover and that he's been reported missing since then, no one finding the body in the cabin. The final conversation may sound a bit incongruent, but they actually say the bulldozers are about to come to tear the cabin down, and presumably they fear the body will be found. So they burn it down so the body is found but police think he had come back and had an accident that started the fire. Probably nobody would buy it, but they couldn't prove otherwise either.
So, what happened is probably that she killed him in a fit of rage while arguing and hid the body in the closet, then went back and filed a missing claim, while being free to be with her lover, who was upset because he had planned something else but serena was too impulsive. when talking before the window, he's just reminding her it wouldn't have happened if she followed his plan, all those years before