https://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Trade-up



Trying to profit off of trade-ups is purely based on luck : if you decide to play, you expose yourself at the risk of losing money. There's always the possibility to lose, and you should prepared to that outcome ; don't play with money you can't afford to lose. If you lose, behave responsibly : there's nobody here to blame but yourself. If you're really looking for a consistent way to profit, put in the necessary efforts, and get involved in the trading community. Hard work and effort will always out more in the long run than basing your success on luck.

I've had some very unlucky streaks myself, and I've never hid it. A smart usage of this game mechanic, however, can earn you quite some profit (See knowledge and techniques down below). The chance of loss will always be there when you trade-up : be prepared for the worst.

http://gtm.steamproxy.vip/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=830708523

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On the SCM, you can easily and quickly buy the necessary input for your trade-ups, and sell your outputs just as quickly.

Chances of success : 33%
Chances of loss : 67%
Cost : 2.50€ to 3€
Strange Cost : 5€ to 6.50€

Buy 10 of those :




Target :



Unique selling price : 5 to 5.50€
Strange Selling Price : 15€ to 18€

Chances of success : 50%
Chances of loss : 50%
Cost : 5€ to 5.50€
Strange Cost : 9€ to 11€

Buy 10 of those :




Target :




Unique selling price : 8€ to 9€
Strange Selling Price : 13€ to 15.50€

Chances of success : 33%
Chances of loss : 66%
Cost : 2.50€ to 3€
Strange Cost : 5€ to 6.5€

Buy 10 of those :




Target :



Unique selling price : 4.50€ to 5€
Strange Selling Price : 16€ to 19€

Chances of success : 50%
Chances of loss : 50%
Cost : 25€ to 35€
Strange Cost : Don't do it, it's not profitable

Buy 10 of those :




Target :



Unique selling price : 48€ to 55€
Strange Selling Price : Not enough

Note : I have never attempted this trade-up myself (as you can tell by the fact that I don't provide one of my successful screenshots), as I seek for reliable sources of profit. There's simply not a big enough supply for Gargoyle Assassins to allow you to do this trade-up consistently, and losing this one will lose you significants amounts of money. The only way you can make this work is if you're going for a one-time attempt ; once you've tried it, don't do it again, it's just too risky for such a reward.

Chances of success : 50%
Chances of loss : 50%
Cost : 11.5€ to 14.5€
Strange Cost : 22€ to 25€

Buy 10 of this one :




Target :



Unique selling price : 19€ to 22€
Strange Selling Price : 37€ to 40€

Notes : If you fail this one, you won't be punished as hard as for the other listed trade-ups. The Bedouin Bandana sells at a very decent price, and you might even profit from a Strange Bedouin Bandana (albeit, less than Skullcap) if you've acquired the Dayjoggers for a low enough price.

(I have done this one a fair few times myself, but sadly, I haven't taken any screenshots :c )

Chances of success : 33%
Chances of loss : 66%
Cost : 2.90€ to 3.50€
Strange Cost : 8.50€ to 11€

Buy 10 of those :




Target :



Unique selling price : 7.50€ to 8€
Strange Selling Price : 15.50€ to 18.50€
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Chances of success : 33%
Chances of loss : 33%
Cost : 3.40€ to 4€€
Strange Cost : 8.50€€ to 11.50€

Buy 10 of those :




Target :



Unique selling price : 7.5€ to 8€
Strange Selling Price : 18€ to 20€

Note : This trade-up introduces the concept of an unpunishing output (Pyro the Flamedeer) ; you will lose very little to no money if you end up with this, which is why you only have a 33% chance of failing this one (On a strange trade-up, this one is punishing ; this only applies to unique trade-ups.).

Chances of success : 33% (Strange : 66%)
Chances of loss : 33%
Cost : 5€ to 7€
Strange Cost : 13€ to 15€

Buy 10 of those :




Target :



Unique selling price : 13€ to 17€
Strange Selling Price : 21€ to 22€

Note : This collection was recently added into the game ; as such, these prices might be subject to high and unpredictable fluctuations.
Going for a Strange trade-up will earn you less money, but the Legendary Lid consistently sells for the same amount of money as the Plumber's Cap, which gives it a 66% success rate.

Before going wild with these trade-ups, there's a few things you might want to know.


A small post Gun Mettle patch (which I can't find back, unfortunately ; props to anybody who can find that patch ! ), introduced something to fix a frequent user complaint ; that patch made it so that you would be much less likely to obtain dupes on consecutive unboxings. How can we use this to our advantage?
Firstly, you should know that the output randomizing factor in uncratings and trade-ups is exactly the same. Anything that affects your unbox output will also affect your trade-up output. As such, if you go for consecutive trade-ups, you're much less likely to obtain one item twice in a row.
You should also know that this applies to single game sessions : if you boot off the game, and trade-up again, your previous output will be forgotten, getting you back to a fresh start.
What does that mean for you? Well, if you've failed one trade-up, you can simply go to the Steam Market, buy 10 more hats to do the same trade-up again, as your chance to get that fail-inducing output is now significantly decreased (Note : decreased chance doesn't mean nullified, we're still talking about luck. Luck, in its very nature, is unreliable.) !

What if you succeed? Just boot off the game, to reset the memory on what you previously obtained (if you plan on using that profit to do more trade-ups), and enjoy the profit !

This has led me to develop a technique which works quite well, which consists of doing 2 unique trade-ups for a cheap collection (mainly the invasion update collections, the creepy crawly collection, and the winter 2016 collection), and then doing 1 strange trade-up. Why would that work? These collections have a 33% success rate, and if the first two have failed, I can go for a strange one, with an increased chance of winning ! And if I win on the first attempt, I'm not complaining neither.


Before buying ANYTHING, always make sure you the market can provide you with enough of hats to do the trade-up. This is especially true with trade-ups where the inputs are already quite scarce (ie : Mayflower or Gargoyle assassins). If the market can't provide you with 10 hats of a decent enough price, use buy orders. You'll have to be a bit more patient, though, and this exposes you to the risk of having the potential outputs' price fluctuating.

Remember, you're playing a game, called Team Fortress 2 ; don't do anything if you don't enjoy it ! If you don't enjoy playing with your money, don't do it !
If you lose 10 bucks, don't make a big deal out of it. You should already be responsible enough not to play with money you can't lose. You've played, failed, and need to know how to take a defeat ; it's part of the fun !
If you earn money, good on ya ! You can send your profit to the charity https://steamcommunity.com/tradeoffer/new/?partner=108364439&token=vnsuk3_2.


Further reading :

http://gtm.steamproxy.vip/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=936695390

http://gtm.steamproxy.vip/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=818926517

http://gtm.steamproxy.vip/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=794056961